Almaty. November 8. KazTAG -Madina Alimkhanova. Explosions in Atyrau have been the first officially recognized terror act in Kazakhstan, the charge of the acts were taken by earlier unknown group, supposedly, based in Afghanistan. Marat Shibutov, expert of the association of border cooperation with Russia shared his opinion about if there is external threat and how terrorists get to Kazakhstan.
-What is the origin of terrorism in our country?
- The main source of terrorism in Kazakhstan is social loosers forming a protest mass. They have only one way – it is to go to the affiliation, where are not loosers. Factually they are pushed out to the wayside, where they are picked up, brought to an affiliation and proposed to commit a feat.
-Who are the people "picked up" by them?
-All the terrorists are young, aged below 35, these are people who grew up in the time of Kazakhstani independence. Most of them are Kazakhs. Almost all of these people reside in the inhabited areas with high level of immigrants, the places, where it is easy to hide. Their profits are a bit higher the survival level, religious factor prevails in their motives.
-Terrorists act differently in different states. Which tactics do they prefer in Kazakhstan?
-The most probable is Dagestan type of terrorism. It is murder of employees of force bodies and officials. The main goal is in paralyzation of the state machine. If to look if Kazakhstan is ready for this type of terrorism - factually it isn't. The majority of officials and security officials do not hide, they wear uniforms, state buildings are not protected. Ministers might have bodyguards, but the officials with lower rank don't. Factually all of them can be taken barehanded.
-Khalifat Soldiers said in their statement they did not want victims among the population. Did they target officials? Is it performance of Dagestan variant?
- That is why I said that official structures are under the target. Talking about Dagestan type, they will try not to touch the population, using objection to security services and officials which might increase their popularity. The statement of Khalifat Soldiers is a fib. I don't think they have controlled Atyrau terrorists and have any connection with the explosions. They have just chosen a good moment.
-And using the moment they would claim to cancel the ban on prayer halls in the state bodies and hijabs wearing. Let us assume the government would agree. What would be further?
-They would put in the next claims. By the way, the law has no ban on hijabs wearing, there is only the ban on prayer halls. But in principle it meets secular character of our state - the government doesn't have to present them.
-A representative of Russian Islamic committee Geidar Jemal recently said that the USis adherent to the terrorism in Central Asia, acting through the special services of Saudi Arabia. How much is it possible?
-First, the special services of Saudi Arabiahave their own policy. Second, Americans act within their corporations in Central Asia. Taking in account the agreement on freights transportation to Afghanistan, they do not need the problems in the region.
-Is it possible that foreign terror organizations will start their activity in Kazakhstan?
-I don't think so.
-Do you mean that Kazakhstan is not interesting for them?
-In many terms terrorism reflects the special services of the world power centers, if they say 'stop', it means we deal only with our domestic terrorism.
-Do you think that Kazakhstan is facing only domestic terrorism?
-Now yes. Earlier there was foreign as well. In 1990-2000 it was represented by international networks- Uzbeks, Chechens, Uigurs. Now we have our own forces. I should mark they have quite good tactic preparation, but a weak technical one. Besides that they are weakly structured. They represent segmental cells, which are not united into an integral part, they are independent sprouts raised in these or those regions.
-What about hidden terrorism, enlistment of our people in terrorism organizations in Afghanistan and Pakistan?
-KNB catch somebody every year, 100-200 people, if they don't, there is always somebody under these articles. It means there is always somebody who organizes terror communities, agitates and enlists. Many extremist materials are spread in CDs and no automatic systems can reveal them. There are points where they sell extremist literature in many mosques (for some reasons they are not controlled and banned by special services).
-Which factors can turn hidden terrorism into an open form?
-The weaker the government is, the stronger the terrorism is. Of course, if it is funded. When there is money, it is possible to hire consultants, purchase explosives, good equipment and act more actively. Now they (terrorists-KazTAG) act reactively: they are arrested - they revenge, they are prevented from oil stealing- they revenge.
-Does it mean they are mostly concerned about their financial issues? Which options do they have?
-Perhaps they will be looking for new funding sources, improvement of ties with North Caucasus and Pakistan. I don't think they will trade drugs. I think it will be banditism, banks robbery and kidnapping.
-What plays the main role in terrorism development - religion, policy, economy?
-Common unbalance, when there is no balance in religion, policy and economy. When there are slants, the terrorism is based on them. However, its main difference from diversion - non interference of maximum economic damage, maximum deterrence, change or seizure of acting power. In most cases they choose random victims, for the population not to feel protected.
-Which goals do the terrorists have: religious, political?
-They have no aim but revenge now. In the conditions when they are always chased, it is important for them to show, that it is dangerous - "We will explode the akimat!", "We will explode the DKNB!" and so on.
DKNB in Aktobe was one of the toughest; it strongly suppressed terrorists, that is why they brought their revenge there. May be later there will be political aims if they are not stopped now.
-Which methods of fighting are applied by security officials?
-There is a big different between the work of special services all over the world and Kazakhstan. In Russia and the US special systems have been founded which trace social networks to prevent terrorism, in Kazakhstan instead of searching these people they just block sites. The approach is absolutely formal. They banned the sites- do we have less terrorists?
-Is there any chance for terrorism development in Kazakhstan?
-We have no law enforcement experience against extremist statement, we even have no concept as "contra-terrorist operation". According to the draft law on national security it means that terrorism is less dangerous in our state than a museum robbery. The monitoring of financial flows is factually useless. There is a system of illegal money flow, which allows transfer several millions dollars. If the authorities wanted, they could bring a number of articles for the terrorists, which are not applied now, for example for stirring up national hatred. If there is political will and no support from outside, terrorism can be suppressed. It depends on the government.
-Thank you for the interview!
Reference. Marat Shibutov is a publicist, expert of the association of trans-border cooperation, expert in the branch of subsoil and nature use in Kazakhstan, participant of the projects on Kashagan and Karachaganak fields development.